LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future

Achieving GPT-4o-Level Accuracy with a Small 14B Model
Authors & Affiliations
Ben Turtel
Danny Fanklin
Philipp Schoenegger
Citation
arXiv:2502.05253 [cs.CL]
🔗 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2502.05253

We present an outcome-driven fine-tuning framework that enhances the forecasting capabilities of large language models (LLMs) without relying on human-curated reasoning samples.

Key Insight: Our method increases prediction accuracy by 7–10% over baseline models, bringing a 14B parameter model on par with frontier models like GPT-4o—using only <10K training samples.

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